KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

88%

75%

70%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.9¢Risks 83.85u

ICONNO 16.1¢Risks 16.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.15u · ICON −16.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	72.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	31.9%	—	85.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	47.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	53.2%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	29.5%	—	78.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	70.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	4.7%	44.6%	—	83.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	33.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	36.9%	31.1%	6.5%	95.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	29.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	22.6%	24.9%	34.3%	77.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	37.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	32.3%	46.9%	17.4%	70.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	42.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	47.6%	69.2%	42.1%	67.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	38.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	56.6%	40.1%	41.7%	72.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	38.2%	43.2%	—	22.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	73.8%	17.8%	55.2%	96.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	87.9%	28.7%	—	96.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	81.0%	18.4%	75.6%	95.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	96.8%	31.8%	—	96.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.9%	97.1%	77.5%	81.0%	90.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	93.0%	66.5%	—	96.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	49.0%	85.5%	74.9%	91.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	94.2%	65.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	72.7%	67.9%	27.3%	94.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	72.4%	88.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	72.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗