KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

79%

59%

36%

35%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

HRESNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · HRES −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:55+00:00	91.8%	69.1%	41.5%	75.8%	76.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	91.8%	69.1%	64.6%	75.8%	76.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	91.8%	69.1%	64.6%	75.8%	76.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	91.8%	69.1%	64.6%	75.8%	76.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	91.8%	69.1%	64.6%	75.8%	76.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	64.6%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	64.6%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	64.6%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	64.6%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	64.6%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	94.7%	78.5%	54.7%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	94.7%	78.5%	54.7%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	94.7%	78.5%	54.7%	68.9%	94.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	94.4%	77.7%	54.7%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	94.4%	77.7%	54.7%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	54.7%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	54.7%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	62.8%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	62.8%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	62.8%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	62.8%	68.9%	94.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	90.1%	78.9%	62.8%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	90.1%	78.9%	62.8%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	90.1%	78.9%	62.8%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	90.1%	78.9%	62.8%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	90.1%	78.9%	59.4%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	90.1%	78.9%	59.4%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	90.1%	78.9%	59.4%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	59.4%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	59.4%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	59.4%	35.2%	36.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	94.4%	78.9%	59.4%	35.2%	36.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	79.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	77.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	73.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	36%	71.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	70.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗