KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

79%

59%

36%

35%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

HRESNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · HRES −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	97.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	62.1%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	22.2%	—	78.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	36.0%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	40.5%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	19.3%	—	68.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	58.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	2.2%	31.8%	—	74.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	22.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	24.6%	19.9%	3.1%	90.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	13.2%	14.8%	22.1%	65.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	24.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	20.0%	32.3%	9.3%	56.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	27.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	32.3%	54.0%	27.4%	51.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	24.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	40.1%	25.1%	26.5%	57.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	23.3%	27.4%	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	57.8%	8.6%	37.9%	91.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	76.5%	15.5%	—	91.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	66.1%	8.6%	59.1%	88.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	91.6%	17.1%	—	90.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	92.1%	60.6%	65.2%	79.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	83.6%	47.0%	—	90.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	29.4%	70.6%	56.1%	80.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	85.0%	44.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	52.2%	46.7%	12.5%	84.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	51.1%	73.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	79.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	77.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	73.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	36%	71.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	70.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗