KLAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

30%

21%

12%

10%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

AIFSNO 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.80u · AIFS −75.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00	22.9%	20.0%	18.4%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	22.9%	20.0%	18.4%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	22.9%	20.0%	18.4%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	22.9%	20.0%	18.4%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	22.9%	20.0%	18.4%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	22.9%	21.9%	18.8%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	22.9%	21.9%	18.8%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	22.9%	21.9%	18.8%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	20.4%	22.1%	18.8%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	20.4%	22.1%	18.8%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	18.8%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	18.8%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	27.4%	13.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	19.5%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	20.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	17.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	12.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	12.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	17.4%	21.5%	12.4%	33.7%	6.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00	9.9%	21.5%	12.4%	38.5%	29.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	9.9%	21.5%	12.4%	38.5%	29.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	9.9%	21.5%	12.4%	38.5%	29.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	9.9%	21.5%	12.4%	38.5%	29.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	9.9%	21.5%	12.4%	38.5%	29.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	9.9%	21.2%	11.8%	38.5%	29.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	38%	67.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	35%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	73.1°F	8.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	70.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	72.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261022-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗