KLAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

30%

21%

12%

10%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

AIFSNO 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.80u · AIFS −75.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	23.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	29.1%	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	51.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	41.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	19.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	92.8%	19.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	15.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	19.9%	22.4%	88.5%	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	33.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	18.9%	15.2%	41.3%	18.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	23.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	18.4%	30.3%	31.6%	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	22.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	20.1%	18.4%	50.0%	11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	18.9%	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	18.9%	28.6%	22.5%	12.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	52.6%	29.6%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	21.4%	19.6%	24.8%	14.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	22.2%	17.8%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	9.0%	18.4%	20.9%	17.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	21.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	36.6%	24.7%	29.6%	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	21.9%	28.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	38%	67.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	35%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	73.1°F	8.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	70.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	72.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261022-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗