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KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
91%
AIFS
88%
WN2
85%
ICON
79%
EPS
64%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u
VS
EPSNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.30u · EPS −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00ICON: 39.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 39.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00ICON: 39.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 39.0% · 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0010-18 11:4810-18 20:1310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0084.8%64.0%79.4%58.0%39.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:0084.8%64.0%79.4%58.0%39.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0084.8%64.0%79.4%58.0%39.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0094.1%63.9%79.4%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:0094.1%63.9%79.4%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:0094.1%64.5%79.4%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:0094.1%64.5%79.4%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:0094.1%64.5%81.6%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:0094.1%64.5%81.6%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:0094.1%64.5%81.6%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:0094.1%64.5%81.6%58.0%39.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:0093.3%64.5%81.6%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:0093.3%64.5%81.6%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:0093.3%64.5%81.6%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:0093.3%64.5%81.6%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:0093.3%64.5%85.0%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:0093.3%64.5%85.0%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:0093.3%64.5%85.0%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:0088.2%64.5%85.0%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:0088.2%64.5%85.0%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:0088.2%64.5%85.0%90.9%79.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0088.2%64.5%85.0%90.9%79.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES91%81.1°F6.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single88%79.3°F5.8°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 285%77.8°F5.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON79%80.7°F10.0°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%75.3°F7.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend53%73.0°F6.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗