KLAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

88%

85%

79%

64%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

EPSNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.30u · EPS −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	97.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	34.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	38.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	60.8%	—	82.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	67.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	75.9%	—	72.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	96.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	10.5%	99.6%	—	78.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	98.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	73.7%	91.5%	37.6%	87.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	99.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	98.7%	99.7%	92.1%	91.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	98.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	81.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	79.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	77.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	79%	80.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	75.3°F	7.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	73.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗