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KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 09:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
>99%
AIFS
>99%
WN2
>99%
EPS
98%
HRES
94%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 96.8¢Risks 24.20u
VS
HRESNO 3.2¢Risks 0.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.80u · HRES −0.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:0010-14 05:1510-14 07:3110-14 09:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:0099.8%98.5%99.8%93.6%100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:0099.8%98.5%99.8%93.6%100.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:0099.8%98.5%99.8%93.6%100.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:0099.9%98.5%99.8%93.6%100.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:0099.9%98.5%99.8%93.6%100.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:0099.9%98.5%99.8%93.6%100.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:0099.9%98.5%99.8%93.6%100.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON>99%71.8°F4.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0000
AIFS Single>99%65.3°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:000.0000
WeatherNext 2>99%63.1°F3.7°F2026-10-13 12:000.0000
IFS Ensemble98%69.6°F7.9°F2026-10-13 00:000.0002
IFS HRES94%60.1°F5.0°F2026-10-13 12:000.0041
NWS forecast55%53.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 02:000.2016
National Blend42%52.0°F2.3°F2026-10-14 00:000.3422

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 14 · 05:15 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗