KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

>99%

98%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 96.8¢Risks 24.20u

HRESNO 3.2¢Risks 0.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.80u · HRES −0.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	91.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	100.0%	—	—	97.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	97.3%	—	—	95.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	98.3%	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	99.2%	99.2%	—	—	90.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	99.8%	98.7%	67.0%	—	92.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	99.8%	91.3%	—	93.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	92.7%	94.6%	67.7%	—	91.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	93.6%	92.8%	99.4%	—	84.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	94.0%	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	95.9%	96.4%	94.4%	—	86.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	98.4%	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	100.0%	94.3%	89.9%	—	86.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	96.9%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	100.0%	100.0%	94.7%	—	95.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	99.9%	99.6%	99.5%	—	98.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	60.9%	81.9%	48.4%	25.0%	39.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	69.0%	78.5%	50.0%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	71.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	>99%	65.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	>99%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	98%	69.6°F	7.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0002
IFS HRES	94%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0041
NWS forecast	55%	53.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2016
National Blend	42%	52.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3422

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 14 · 05:15 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗