KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:25+00:00	7.0%	5.6%	14.0%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	7.0%	5.6%	14.0%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	7.0%	5.6%	14.0%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	7.0%	5.6%	14.0%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	7.0%	5.6%	14.0%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	7.0%	3.9%	2.2%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	7.0%	3.9%	2.2%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	7.0%	3.9%	2.2%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	4.1%	3.9%	2.2%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	4.1%	3.9%	2.2%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	4.1%	3.7%	2.2%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	4.1%	3.7%	2.2%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	4.1%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	4.1%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	4.1%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	4.1%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	7.6%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	7.6%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.0%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	7.6%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	7.6%	3.7%	1.1%	23.6%	0.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	7.6%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	7.6%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	7.6%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	17.9%	0.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:00+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	2.1%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	1.2%	1.9%	0.0%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	88%	53.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.7797
National Blend	81%	53.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.6626
AIFS Single	3%	63.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0008
IFS HRES	2%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	2%	61.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0003
IFS Ensemble	<1%	74.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	<1%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: New York stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗