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KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
3%
HRES
2%
WN2
2%
EPS
<1%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 81.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 77.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 53.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 54.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 89.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 96.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 91.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010-02 06:0010-10 00:0010-17 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:0045.8%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0060.5%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0038.0%—20.1%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0011.2%————12.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0020.1%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0011.8%————16.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:003.7%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0035.9%————13.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0023.2%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:005.6%————11.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0013.4%————5.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0031.6%————10.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:004.3%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0048.9%————8.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0037.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0039.5%————16.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0050.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0046.7%————19.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0037.9%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:003.3%————17.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0032.7%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0013.2%—1.4%——10.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0013.8%—3.0%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0011.5%—0.1%——7.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:003.5%—7.4%——11.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0018.0%—1.9%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:003.6%—5.1%——16.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0035.7%—5.2%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0033.0%3.0%2.8%——21.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0025.0%—1.9%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0045.8%0.9%4.4%53.5%—17.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0050.7%—1.3%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0039.2%—1.0%21.0%—17.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0055.2%—0.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0072.4%18.9%15.1%54.6%—21.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0077.7%—8.9%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0071.9%17.9%19.5%2.7%—34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0046.7%17.3%9.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0040.1%13.4%12.0%16.8%—31.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0044.9%6.7%16.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0026.2%0.2%17.8%26.9%—33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0017.2%11.6%2.5%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0026.6%0.0%0.1%17.8%—17.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.3%0.0%0.0%——1.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:007.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%—0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:004.9%0.0%0.0%——0.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.8%0.0%0.0%1.8%—0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:004.2%0.0%0.0%——0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:006.2%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0016.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0011.0%0.0%0.5%0.2%—0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:008.2%0.0%0.0%0.4%—0.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0011.2%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0015.8%0.0%0.0%0.2%—0.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0010.1%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0010.4%0.0%0.0%0.9%—0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:007.8%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0078.7%2.7%7.0%7.5%—13.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0082.9%81.9%60.9%89.0%96.9%92.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0099.7%77.2%67.6%89.3%—91.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast88%53.0°F2.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.7797
National Blend81%53.0°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:000.6626
AIFS Single3%63.0°F4.0°F2026-10-16 18:000.0008
IFS HRES2%63.2°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:000.0004
WeatherNext 22%61.7°F2.9°F2026-10-16 18:000.0003
IFS Ensemble<1%74.0°F3.5°F2026-10-16 00:000.0000
ICON<1%69.7°F3.5°F2026-10-16 12:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: New York stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗