KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

25%

18%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.5¢Risks 15.50u

WN2NO 84.5¢Risks 84.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.50u · WN2 −84.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:00+00:00	38.9%	27.7%	10.3%	56.4%	11.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	38.9%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	11.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	38.9%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	11.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	38.9%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	11.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	11.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	10.7%
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	10.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	10.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	6.6%	56.4%	10.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	8.1%	56.4%	10.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	8.1%	56.4%	10.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	34.0%	43.7%	8.1%	56.4%	10.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	8.1%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	8.1%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	8.1%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	8.1%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	8.1%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	23.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	5.6%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	3.4%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	3.4%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	21.7%	43.7%	3.4%	63.3%	29.5%
2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00	19.4%	43.7%	3.4%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	19.4%	43.7%	3.4%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	19.4%	43.7%	3.4%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	19.4%	43.7%	3.4%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	19.4%	43.7%	3.4%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	19.4%	43.7%	3.8%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	19.4%	38.8%	3.8%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	19.4%	38.8%	3.8%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	12.7%	38.8%	3.8%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	12.6%	38.9%	3.8%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	12.6%	35.8%	3.8%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:51+00:00	12.6%	35.8%	3.8%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	12.6%	35.8%	1.6%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	12.6%	35.8%	1.6%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	12.6%	35.8%	1.6%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	12.6%	35.8%	1.6%	58.9%	21.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	14.1%	35.8%	1.6%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	14.1%	35.8%	1.6%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	14.1%	35.8%	1.6%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	14.1%	35.8%	1.6%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	14.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	14.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	14.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	2.9%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	18.1%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	16.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	18.2%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	18.2%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	18.2%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	18.2%	35.8%	4.3%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	18.2%	41.0%	6.1%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	18.2%	41.0%	6.1%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	18.2%	41.0%	6.1%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	18.2%	41.0%	6.1%	40.3%	23.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	13.4%	41.1%	6.1%	40.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:05+00:00	13.4%	43.3%	6.1%	40.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	13.4%	43.3%	6.1%	40.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	13.4%	43.3%	6.1%	40.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	13.4%	43.3%	3.3%	40.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	13.4%	43.3%	3.3%	40.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	13.4%	43.3%	3.3%	40.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	3.3%	40.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	3.3%	40.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	3.3%	40.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	3.3%	40.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	3.3%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	15.7%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	4.4%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	2.6%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	2.6%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	11.9%	43.3%	2.6%	32.2%	25.8%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	12.7%	43.3%	2.6%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	12.7%	43.3%	2.6%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	12.7%	43.3%	2.6%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	12.7%	43.3%	2.6%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	12.7%	43.3%	2.6%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	12.7%	20.0%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	12.7%	20.0%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	12.7%	20.0%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	11.7%	20.0%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	11.6%	20.5%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	2.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	1.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	1.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	1.5%	30.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	14.3%	18.3%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	14.3%	18.3%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	14.3%	18.3%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	14.3%	18.3%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	14.3%	18.3%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	14.3%	18.4%	2.7%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	14.3%	18.4%	2.7%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	14.3%	18.4%	2.7%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	2.7%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	2.7%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	2.7%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	2.7%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	10.2%	18.4%	1.5%	25.1%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	57.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
IFS HRES	25%	58.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0630
IFS Ensemble	18%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0339
AIFS Single	10%	60.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0104
National Blend	6%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
NWS forecast	2%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	2%	61.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New York stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗