KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

25%

18%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.5¢Risks 15.50u

WN2NO 84.5¢Risks 84.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.50u · WN2 −84.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	41.6%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	33.0%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	79.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	25.2%	74.8%	72.5%	—	53.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	14.0%	52.9%	52.2%	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	30.9%	40.9%	49.2%	—	62.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	9.3%	27.4%	22.4%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	85.6%	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	6.6%	7.7%	35.3%	—	48.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	16.2%	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.6%	17.2%	4.1%	54.4%	—	73.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	37.6%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	41.8%	5.8%	59.1%	—	74.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	35.2%	8.8%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	27.1%	5.4%	62.4%	—	70.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	37.2%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	20.4%	14.5%	56.1%	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	27.1%	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	21.3%	42.4%	54.4%	—	76.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	21.4%	37.8%	97.9%	—	66.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	22.4%	44.2%	52.3%	—	61.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	21.6%	16.7%	50.0%	—	52.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	19.1%	21.7%	46.3%	76.4%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	17.4%	17.4%	48.7%	—	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	14.1%	9.5%	25.1%	58.0%	44.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	20.1%	17.3%	24.2%	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	11.5%	3.5%	26.8%	41.4%	42.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	13.6%	3.4%	29.8%	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	14.2%	4.4%	43.7%	48.4%	59.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	7.3%	3.1%	18.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	57.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
IFS HRES	25%	58.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0630
IFS Ensemble	18%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0339
AIFS Single	10%	60.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0104
National Blend	6%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
NWS forecast	2%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	2%	61.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New York stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗