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KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
94%
ICON
92%
HRES
88%
EPS
86%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 93.1¢Risks 46.55u
VS
EPSNO 6.9¢Risks 3.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.45u · EPS −3.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00ICON: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:0091.2%53.9%99.4%80.2%93.1%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:0091.2%53.9%99.6%80.2%93.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0091.2%53.9%99.6%80.2%93.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0091.2%53.9%99.6%80.2%93.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:0092.3%53.9%99.6%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0092.3%53.9%99.6%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:0092.3%53.9%99.6%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0092.3%53.9%99.6%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0092.3%53.9%99.6%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:0092.3%87.0%99.7%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:0092.3%87.0%99.7%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:0092.3%87.0%99.7%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:0093.6%87.0%99.7%88.4%91.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0093.7%86.5%99.7%88.4%91.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%67.2°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single94%64.7°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON92%63.4°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES88%63.4°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble86%62.7°F3.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend78%61.0°F3.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%59.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗