KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

94%

92%

88%

86%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 93.1¢Risks 46.55u

EPSNO 6.9¢Risks 3.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.45u · EPS −3.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	4.0%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	67.0%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	44.6%	85.7%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	15.8%	74.8%	18.4%	—	60.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	96.1%	75.7%	89.7%	—	64.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	97.6%	92.7%	89.3%	—	63.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	95.5%	95.2%	48.4%	—	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	19.5%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	76.2%	93.4%	32.2%	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	83.3%	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	83.3%	91.7%	17.8%	—	57.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	90.8%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	75.6%	89.4%	60.9%	—	54.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	86.8%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	94.6%	72.1%	66.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	92.4%	14.0%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	91.0%	69.7%	80.3%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	94.5%	75.5%	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	92.3%	80.2%	90.1%	0.0%	70.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	81.7%	87.1%	7.1%	—	76.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	77.6%	86.6%	95.2%	70.0%	72.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	95.7%	85.5%	94.2%	—	64.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	88.8%	88.2%	93.7%	0.0%	70.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	86.5%	87.8%	91.3%	—	57.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	88.0%	93.0%	90.5%	81.8%	76.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	94.6%	92.9%	95.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	94.5%	92.7%	95.6%	94.9%	72.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	93.0%	88.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	67.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	64.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	92%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	63.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	62.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	61.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗