KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

76%

68%

61%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.1¢Risks 79.15u

HRESNO 20.9¢Risks 20.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.85u · HRES −20.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:50:32+00:00	73.9%	47.6%	85.7%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	73.9%	47.6%	85.7%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	73.9%	47.6%	85.7%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	85.6%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	85.6%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	85.6%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	85.6%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	72.7%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	56.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	77.8%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	78.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	77.8%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	78.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	77.8%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	78.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	77.8%	47.6%	83.7%	64.2%	78.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	77.8%	47.6%	87.4%	65.9%	78.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	77.8%	47.6%	87.4%	65.9%	78.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	77.8%	47.6%	87.4%	65.9%	78.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	60.5%	47.6%	87.4%	65.9%	78.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	60.5%	47.6%	87.4%	65.9%	78.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	60.5%	47.6%	87.4%	65.9%	78.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	73.0%	35.6%	72.6%	56.0%	86.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	73.0%	35.6%	86.7%	56.0%	86.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	73.0%	35.6%	86.7%	56.0%	86.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	73.0%	35.6%	86.7%	56.0%	86.8%
2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00	64.1%	35.6%	86.7%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	64.1%	35.6%	86.7%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	64.1%	35.6%	86.7%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	64.1%	35.6%	86.7%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	64.1%	35.6%	86.7%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	64.1%	35.6%	88.3%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	64.1%	42.3%	88.3%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00	64.1%	42.3%	88.3%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	77.2%	42.3%	88.3%	60.9%	79.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	77.2%	42.3%	88.3%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	77.2%	45.0%	88.3%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	69.3%	45.0%	87.4%	62.2%	86.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	69.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	86.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	69.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	86.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	69.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	86.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	69.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	86.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	60.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	60.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	60.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	60.3%	45.0%	83.5%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	60.3%	34.1%	88.2%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	60.3%	34.1%	88.2%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	60.3%	34.1%	88.2%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	60.3%	34.1%	88.2%	62.2%	77.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	74.4%	34.1%	88.2%	63.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	74.4%	32.5%	88.2%	63.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	74.4%	32.5%	88.2%	63.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	74.4%	32.5%	88.2%	63.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	74.4%	32.5%	96.0%	63.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	74.4%	32.5%	96.0%	63.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	74.4%	32.5%	96.0%	63.3%	77.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	96.0%	63.3%	83.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	96.0%	63.3%	83.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	96.0%	63.3%	83.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	96.0%	63.3%	83.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	96.0%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	97.2%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	97.2%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	80.3%	32.5%	97.2%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	82.0%	32.5%	97.2%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	82.0%	32.5%	97.2%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	82.0%	32.5%	97.2%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	82.0%	32.5%	97.2%	71.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	84.8%	72.6%	96.7%	70.4%	69.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	84.8%	72.6%	96.7%	70.4%	69.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	84.8%	72.6%	96.7%	70.4%	69.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	84.8%	72.6%	97.5%	70.4%	69.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	84.8%	72.6%	97.5%	70.4%	69.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	84.8%	72.6%	97.5%	70.4%	69.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	97.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	97.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	97.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	97.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	97.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	93.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	93.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	83.1%	72.6%	93.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	84.2%	72.6%	93.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	84.2%	72.6%	93.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	84.2%	72.6%	93.5%	68.1%	43.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	81.9%	56.9%	95.6%	62.4%	74.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	81.9%	56.9%	95.6%	62.4%	74.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	81.9%	56.9%	95.3%	62.4%	74.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	81.9%	56.9%	95.3%	62.4%	74.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	81.9%	56.9%	95.3%	62.4%	74.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	81.9%	56.9%	95.3%	62.4%	74.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	84.4%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	84.4%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	84.4%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	84.4%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	84.4%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	84.4%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	84.4%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.3%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.9%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.9%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	83.2%	56.9%	95.9%	64.3%	72.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00	86.2%	56.9%	95.9%	60.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	86.2%	56.9%	95.9%	60.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	86.2%	56.9%	95.9%	60.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	86.2%	56.9%	95.9%	60.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00	86.2%	56.9%	95.9%	60.6%	75.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	86.2%	67.9%	97.7%	60.6%	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	69.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	67.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗