KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

76%

68%

61%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.1¢Risks 79.15u

HRESNO 20.9¢Risks 20.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.85u · HRES −20.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	72.5%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	51.3%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	31.8%	74.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	72.5%	79.6%	28.6%	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	81.6%	68.3%	44.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	79.5%	71.7%	20.0%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	67.0%	71.2%	29.5%	—	30.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	12.2%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	79.9%	58.3%	55.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	63.4%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	67.0%	76.6%	75.9%	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	59.8%	63.2%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	75.6%	79.1%	79.1%	—	47.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	76.2%	73.2%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	62.4%	75.3%	67.0%	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	52.0%	64.7%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	35.9%	68.8%	60.2%	0.1%	43.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	73.0%	63.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	76.2%	67.9%	61.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	71.4%	75.1%	1.1%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	75.8%	83.2%	48.8%	0.0%	41.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	84.0%	72.7%	60.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	88.2%	68.0%	68.0%	57.4%	52.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	86.5%	84.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	69.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	67.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗