KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

70%

65%

45%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

HRESNO 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.70u · HRES −30.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	92.6%	43.6%	56.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	92.6%	43.6%	56.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	92.6%	43.6%	56.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	85.2%	43.6%	56.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	85.2%	43.6%	56.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	70.7%	93.6%	85.2%	43.6%	56.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	85.2%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	85.2%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	85.2%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	85.2%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	85.2%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	76.5%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	76.5%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	60.3%	93.6%	76.5%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	76.5%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	76.5%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	76.5%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	76.5%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	78.9%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	78.9%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	78.9%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	63.6%	93.6%	78.9%	40.5%	48.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	51.9%	93.6%	78.9%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	51.9%	93.6%	78.9%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	51.9%	93.6%	78.9%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	51.9%	93.6%	78.9%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	51.9%	93.6%	78.9%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	51.9%	83.4%	74.3%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	51.9%	83.4%	74.3%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	51.9%	83.4%	74.3%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	58.3%	82.6%	74.3%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	58.3%	82.6%	74.3%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	74.3%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	74.3%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	42.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	76.2%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	62.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	78.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	78.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	58.3%	80.2%	78.8%	43.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00	69.8%	80.2%	78.8%	45.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	69.8%	80.2%	78.8%	45.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	69.8%	80.2%	78.8%	45.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	69.8%	80.2%	78.8%	45.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00	69.8%	80.2%	78.8%	45.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	69.8%	85.2%	93.5%	45.1%	65.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	66.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	63.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	62.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	61.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗