KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

70%

65%

45%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

HRESNO 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.70u · HRES −30.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	48.3%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	62.7%	—	57.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	78.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	56.9%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	75.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	95.8%	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	95.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	59.4%	89.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	90.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	80.1%	66.4%	40.9%	50.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	73.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	66.3%	66.3%	58.0%	59.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	80.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	82.1%	64.2%	89.0%	61.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	40.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	69.2%	61.8%	83.7%	39.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	40.3%	32.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	64.7%	33.0%	72.1%	33.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	63.4%	44.9%	—	5.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	42.2%	37.1%	50.9%	29.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	49.1%	60.7%	—	22.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	33.0%	51.8%	33.9%	20.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	46.2%	46.2%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	49.0%	54.9%	51.9%	20.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	37.2%	55.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	49.0%	46.9%	39.8%	18.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	61.5%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	67.9%	43.5%	56.5%	24.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	37.8%	45.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	66.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	63.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	62.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	61.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗