KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 3.25u

EPSNO 93.5¢Risks 46.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:02+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	35.5%	23.4%	27.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	27.9%	1.5%	27.3%	23.4%	27.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	27.9%	1.5%	27.3%	23.4%	27.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	27.9%	1.5%	27.3%	23.4%	27.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	27.3%	23.4%	27.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	27.5%	23.4%	27.3%
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	27.5%	23.4%	27.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	27.5%	23.4%	27.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	27.5%	23.4%	27.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	21.2%	23.4%	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	21.2%	23.4%	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	21.2%	23.4%	27.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	21.2%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	21.2%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	21.2%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	21.2%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	21.2%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	14.5%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	15.4%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	15.4%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	8.3%	1.5%	15.4%	4.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	15.4%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	15.4%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	15.4%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	15.4%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	15.4%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	13.3%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	11.0%	1.3%	13.3%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00	11.0%	1.3%	13.3%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	13.3%	12.1%	19.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	13.3%	12.2%	19.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	13.3%	12.2%	19.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	13.3%	12.2%	19.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	20.2%	12.2%	19.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	20.2%	12.2%	19.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	20.2%	12.2%	19.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	19.2%	1.3%	20.2%	12.2%	19.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	20.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	20.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	20.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	20.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	15.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	30.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	6.5%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	12.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	6.5%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	12.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	6.5%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	12.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	6.5%	1.3%	14.2%	11.3%	12.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	8.3%	11.3%	12.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	8.3%	11.3%	12.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	8.3%	11.3%	12.8%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	8.3%	11.3%	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	66.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	65.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	66.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗