KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 3.25u

EPSNO 93.5¢Risks 46.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	4.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	7.5%	—	5.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	15.8%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	4.3%	—	5.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	10.6%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	41.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	38.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	3.6%	21.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	10.2%	4.5%	0.9%	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	6.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	3.8%	3.8%	2.3%	2.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	8.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	8.4%	2.7%	14.2%	2.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.9%	1.8%	7.8%	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.6%	0.2%	2.7%	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.3%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	66.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	65.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	66.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗