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KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
92%
WN2
83%
ICON
59%
AIFS
58%
HRES
22%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 57.4¢Risks 57.40u
VS
HRESNO 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.60u · HRES −42.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:0058.0%85.0%80.9%20.8%60.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:0058.0%85.0%82.2%20.8%60.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0058.0%85.0%82.2%20.8%60.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0058.0%85.0%82.2%20.8%60.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:0057.8%85.0%82.2%22.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0057.8%85.0%82.2%22.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0057.8%85.0%82.2%22.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0057.8%85.0%82.2%22.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0057.8%85.0%82.2%22.4%58.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0057.8%92.4%83.3%22.4%58.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble92%63.8°F3.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%63.1°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON59%60.6°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single58%60.4°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%60.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES22%55.7°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗