KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

83%

59%

58%

22%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

HRESNO 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.60u · HRES −42.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	76.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	26.8%	—	73.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	84.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	95.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	33.5%	—	59.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	40.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	25.7%	—	60.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	76.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	70.0%	71.8%	—	56.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	88.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	35.6%	94.0%	47.9%	61.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	85.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	32.3%	75.1%	75.1%	44.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	72.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	36.5%	82.1%	39.4%	31.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	74.7%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	42.1%	64.8%	47.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	34.9%	61.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	40.9%	61.5%	51.7%	16.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	54.3%	56.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	44.8%	57.0%	31.4%	12.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	35.1%	58.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	63.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	60.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	55.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗