KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

64%

47%

42%

12%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.8¢Risks 38.75u

HRESNO 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.25u · HRES −61.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	35.8%	63.5%	66.9%	11.7%	48.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	35.8%	63.5%	66.9%	11.7%	48.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	35.8%	63.5%	66.0%	11.7%	48.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	35.8%	63.5%	66.0%	11.7%	48.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	35.8%	63.5%	66.0%	11.7%	48.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	35.8%	63.5%	66.0%	11.7%	48.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	39.6%	63.5%	66.0%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	39.6%	63.5%	66.0%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	39.6%	63.5%	66.0%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	39.6%	63.5%	66.0%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	39.6%	63.5%	65.1%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	39.6%	63.5%	65.1%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	39.6%	63.5%	65.1%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	42.0%	63.5%	65.1%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	42.0%	63.5%	65.1%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	42.0%	63.5%	65.1%	12.4%	47.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	42.0%	63.5%	65.1%	12.4%	47.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	63.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	47%	61.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	60.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	54.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗