KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

64%

47%

42%

12%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.8¢Risks 38.75u

HRESNO 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.25u · HRES −61.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	66.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	18.1%	—	62.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	75.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	92.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	23.0%	—	46.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	28.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	16.4%	—	47.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	64.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	57.4%	59.4%	—	42.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	79.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	23.5%	88.5%	34.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	75.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	20.4%	62.3%	62.3%	31.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	58.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	23.4%	70.4%	25.8%	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	60.8%	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	27.4%	49.2%	32.3%	12.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	21.2%	45.1%	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	25.8%	45.0%	35.3%	8.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	37.4%	39.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	28.4%	39.6%	17.8%	5.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	20.2%	41.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	63.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	47%	61.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	60.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	54.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗