KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

42%

35%

22%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.1¢Risks 27.15u

HRESNO 72.9¢Risks 72.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.85u · HRES −72.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	54.8%	41.4%	91.8%	59.2%	64.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	54.8%	38.9%	91.8%	59.2%	64.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	54.8%	38.9%	91.8%	59.2%	64.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	54.8%	38.9%	91.8%	59.2%	64.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	54.8%	38.9%	87.6%	59.2%	64.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	54.8%	38.9%	87.6%	59.2%	64.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	54.8%	38.9%	87.6%	59.2%	64.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	87.6%	59.2%	44.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	87.6%	59.2%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	87.6%	59.2%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	87.6%	59.2%	44.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	87.6%	26.2%	44.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	30.1%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.1%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.6%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.6%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	81.6%	26.3%	44.0%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	29.6%	38.9%	81.6%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	29.6%	38.9%	81.6%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	29.6%	38.9%	81.6%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	29.6%	38.9%	81.6%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	29.6%	38.9%	81.6%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	29.6%	37.3%	74.0%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	29.6%	37.3%	74.0%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	29.6%	37.3%	74.0%	26.2%	34.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	31.5%	37.3%	74.0%	26.5%	34.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	31.5%	37.4%	73.9%	26.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	31.5%	39.3%	73.9%	26.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	31.5%	39.3%	73.9%	26.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	31.5%	39.3%	73.9%	26.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	31.5%	39.3%	60.1%	26.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	31.5%	39.3%	60.1%	26.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	31.5%	39.3%	60.1%	26.2%	34.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	60.1%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	60.1%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	60.1%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	60.1%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	60.1%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	30.2%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:37+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	52.6%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	27.2%	39.3%	52.6%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	27.2%	39.3%	52.6%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	27.2%	39.3%	52.6%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	27.2%	39.3%	52.6%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	27.2%	39.3%	52.6%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	27.2%	41.5%	48.1%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	27.2%	41.5%	48.1%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	27.2%	41.5%	48.1%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	22.1%	41.5%	48.1%	6.2%	35.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	22.1%	41.5%	48.1%	6.2%	35.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	63.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	62.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	61.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	59.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	54.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗