KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

42%

35%

22%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.1¢Risks 27.15u

HRESNO 72.9¢Risks 72.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.85u · HRES −72.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	55.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	11.4%	—	51.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	65.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	86.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	14.6%	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	9.6%	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	52.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	43.9%	46.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	68.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	14.1%	80.1%	22.4%	33.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	63.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	11.7%	47.8%	47.8%	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	44.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	13.4%	56.1%	15.1%	10.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	45.3%	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	15.9%	33.7%	19.5%	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	11.4%	29.7%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	14.3%	29.3%	21.3%	3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	22.6%	23.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	15.6%	24.1%	8.6%	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	10.0%	24.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	63.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	62.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	61.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	59.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	54.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗