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KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
85%
AIFS
81%
ICON
64%
EPS
46%
HRES
28%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.55u
VS
HRESNO 43.5¢Risks 43.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.45u · HRES −43.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:13+00:0074.1%43.9%84.3%36.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:0074.1%43.9%81.0%36.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0074.1%43.9%81.0%36.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0074.1%43.9%81.0%36.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:0081.3%43.9%81.0%27.9%64.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0081.3%43.9%81.0%27.9%64.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0081.3%43.9%81.0%27.9%64.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0081.3%43.9%81.0%27.9%64.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0081.3%43.9%81.0%27.9%64.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0081.3%46.3%85.2%27.9%64.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 285%62.8°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single81%62.9°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON64%60.7°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%59.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%59.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%58.2°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES28%55.1°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗