KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

81%

64%

46%

28%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.55u

HRESNO 43.5¢Risks 43.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.45u · HRES −43.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	31.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	84.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	22.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	74.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	59.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	67.6%	—	46.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	64.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	55.4%	65.8%	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	61.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	15.3%	57.7%	17.1%	28.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	24.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	35.7%	37.1%	32.3%	23.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	59.1%	46.2%	51.5%	30.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	34.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	46.0%	39.0%	11.9%	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	6.5%	47.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	62.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	62.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	60.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	59.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	58.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	55.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗