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KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
79%
ICON
71%
AIFS
68%
EPS
34%
HRES
31%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u
VS
HRESNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.25u · HRES −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00IFS HRES: 17.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00ICON: 70.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:0010-18 15:4110-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:0070.4%34.0%64.2%17.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:0070.4%34.0%64.2%17.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:0070.4%34.0%70.4%17.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:0070.4%34.0%70.4%17.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:0070.4%34.0%70.4%17.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:0070.4%34.0%70.4%17.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:0071.0%34.0%70.4%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:0071.0%34.0%70.4%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:0071.0%34.0%70.4%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:0071.0%34.0%70.4%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:0071.0%34.0%78.6%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:0071.0%34.0%78.6%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:0071.0%34.0%78.6%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:0067.8%34.0%78.6%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:0067.8%34.0%78.6%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:0067.8%34.0%78.6%30.9%70.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:0067.8%34.0%78.6%30.9%70.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 279%63.2°F4.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON71%63.4°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single68%62.0°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend55%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%60.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble34%57.9°F3.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES31%56.2°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗