KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

71%

68%

34%

31%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

HRESNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.25u · HRES −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	26.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	80.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	18.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	69.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	53.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	61.6%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	57.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	48.6%	59.4%	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	54.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	11.5%	50.7%	13.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	19.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	29.1%	30.4%	26.0%	17.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	51.5%	38.7%	43.9%	24.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	27.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	38.2%	31.6%	8.4%	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.3%	39.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	63.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	63.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	62.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	57.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	56.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗