KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

58%

50%

40%

38%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

ICONNO 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.50u · ICON −50.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	33.8%	73.8%	78.5%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	33.8%	73.8%	78.5%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	33.8%	73.8%	78.5%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	33.8%	73.8%	78.5%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	33.8%	73.8%	78.5%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	33.8%	59.4%	80.6%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	33.8%	59.4%	80.6%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	33.8%	59.4%	80.6%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	41.7%	59.4%	80.6%	32.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	41.7%	59.4%	80.5%	32.1%	63.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	41.7%	61.2%	80.5%	32.1%	63.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	41.7%	61.2%	80.5%	32.1%	63.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	41.7%	61.2%	80.5%	32.1%	63.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	41.7%	61.2%	63.8%	32.1%	63.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	41.7%	61.2%	63.8%	32.1%	63.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	41.7%	61.2%	63.8%	32.1%	63.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	63.8%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	63.8%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	63.8%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	63.8%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	63.8%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	50.0%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	50.0%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	26.0%	61.2%	50.0%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	57.6%	61.2%	50.0%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	57.6%	61.2%	50.0%	40.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	57.6%	61.2%	50.0%	40.2%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	61%	61.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	61.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	60.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	58.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	57.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗