KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

58%

50%

40%

38%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

ICONNO 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.50u · ICON −50.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	76.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	14.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	63.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	46.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	55.2%	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	51.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	41.9%	52.7%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	47.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	8.5%	43.7%	9.6%	17.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	14.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	23.2%	24.3%	20.4%	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	11.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	43.9%	31.6%	36.5%	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	30.9%	24.8%	5.7%	15.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	2.7%	31.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	61%	61.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	61.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	60.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	58.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	57.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗