KLGA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

16%

10%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.05u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	12.6%	1.6%	16.7%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	12.6%	1.6%	16.7%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	12.6%	1.6%	16.7%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	12.6%	1.6%	16.7%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	12.6%	1.6%	16.7%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	12.0%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	12.0%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	12.0%	6.6%	7.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	12.0%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	12.0%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	12.0%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	12.0%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	18.4%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	18.4%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	18.4%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	13.7%	0.1%	18.4%	6.6%	6.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	18.4%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	18.4%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	18.4%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	18.4%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	21.1%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	15.4%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	15.4%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	16.9%	0.1%	15.4%	15.3%	45.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00	15.9%	0.1%	15.4%	9.6%	23.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	15.9%	0.1%	15.4%	9.6%	23.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	15.9%	0.1%	15.4%	9.6%	23.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	15.9%	0.1%	15.4%	9.6%	23.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00	15.9%	0.1%	15.4%	9.6%	23.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	15.9%	0.3%	10.3%	9.6%	23.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	24%	66.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	66.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	65.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	62.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	61.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗