KLGA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

16%

10%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.05u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	1.1%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	2.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	4.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	4.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.1%	6.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	5.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	15.8%	4.7%	0.5%	2.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	5.3%	2.9%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	4.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	24%	66.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	66.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	65.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	62.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	61.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗