KMCI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

31%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.20u · EPS −76.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	21.7%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	21.7%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	21.7%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	21.7%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	21.7%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	21.7%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	19.4%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	19.4%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	19.4%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	19.4%	10.7%	40.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:20+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	19.4%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	35.3%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	17.2%	9.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:20+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	16.6%	9.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	16.6%	9.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	31.4%	0.0%	16.6%	9.8%	47.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	48%	32.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2266
National Blend	35%	34.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1253
AIFS Single	31%	34.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0986
WeatherNext 2	17%	35.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0276
IFS HRES	10%	37.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0096
NWS forecast	2%	39.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.2°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 12:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗