KMCI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

31%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.20u · EPS −76.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	22.5%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	27.3%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	51.3%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	37.6%	74.8%	1.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	63.6%	0.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	41.7%	47.7%	4.2%	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	55.6%	20.6%	4.7%	—	2.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	33.0%	14.8%	3.3%	—	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	29.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	27.7%	8.0%	1.8%	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	17.2%	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	34.7%	7.0%	1.8%	—	5.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	40.6%	7.0%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	50.0%	12.1%	4.9%	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	47.0%	9.6%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	32.1%	9.0%	1.2%	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	41.6%	12.1%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	40.3%	11.4%	0.4%	72.7%	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	47.8%	9.7%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	52.3%	15.3%	0.6%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	53.6%	13.2%	0.5%	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	47.5%	12.4%	0.2%	80.9%	3.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	43.6%	13.5%	0.1%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	34.3%	9.5%	0.3%	74.9%	2.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	35.0%	6.2%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	22.2%	2.7%	2.5%	70.7%	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	36.6%	2.2%	6.0%	—	4.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	42.1%	1.8%	16.1%	53.2%	11.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	48%	32.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2266
National Blend	35%	34.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1253
AIFS Single	31%	34.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0986
WeatherNext 2	17%	35.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0276
IFS HRES	10%	37.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0096
NWS forecast	2%	39.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.2°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 12:24 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗