KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

42%

21%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u

ICONNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.15u · ICON −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:53+00:00	38.9%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	25.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	38.9%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	25.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	38.9%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	25.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	38.9%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	25.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	38.9%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	25.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	38.9%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	25.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	43.1%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	22.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	43.1%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	22.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	43.1%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	22.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	43.1%	73.5%	34.9%	29.6%	22.1%
2026-10-14T10:33:37+00:00	43.1%	73.5%	34.9%	24.8%	22.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	43.1%	56.4%	29.5%	24.8%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	43.1%	56.4%	29.5%	24.8%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	43.1%	56.4%	29.5%	24.8%	22.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:29+00:00	40.6%	56.4%	29.5%	24.8%	22.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	40.6%	56.4%	29.5%	24.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	40.6%	58.9%	29.5%	24.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	40.6%	58.9%	29.5%	24.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	40.6%	58.9%	29.5%	24.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	40.6%	58.9%	25.9%	24.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	40.6%	58.9%	25.9%	24.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	40.6%	58.9%	25.9%	24.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.9%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.9%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.9%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.9%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.9%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:49+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	42.2%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:16+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	25.1%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	30.5%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	30.5%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	44.0%	58.9%	30.5%	24.2%	31.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00	45.4%	58.9%	30.5%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	45.4%	58.9%	30.5%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	45.4%	58.9%	30.5%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	45.4%	58.9%	30.5%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00	45.4%	58.9%	30.5%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	45.4%	58.9%	26.7%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	45.4%	64.3%	26.7%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	45.4%	64.3%	26.7%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	43.5%	64.2%	26.7%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	43.5%	64.2%	26.7%	26.6%	18.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	44.1%	54.8%	29.2%	24.0%	4.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	44.1%	54.8%	31.4%	24.0%	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	44.1%	54.8%	31.4%	24.0%	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	44.1%	54.8%	31.4%	24.0%	4.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	43.0%	54.8%	31.4%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	43.0%	54.8%	31.4%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	43.0%	54.8%	31.4%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	43.0%	54.8%	31.4%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	43.0%	54.8%	31.4%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	43.0%	56.7%	29.1%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	43.0%	56.7%	29.1%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	43.0%	56.7%	29.1%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	40.0%	56.7%	29.1%	23.4%	4.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	40.0%	56.6%	29.1%	23.4%	3.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:11+00:00	48.0%	41.5%	24.6%	21.0%	3.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	48.0%	41.5%	43.2%	21.0%	3.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	48.0%	41.5%	43.2%	21.0%	3.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	48.0%	41.5%	43.2%	21.0%	3.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	48.0%	41.5%	43.2%	21.0%	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
AIFS Single	48%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2304
WeatherNext 2	43%	67.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1866
IFS Ensemble	42%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1722
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	21%	64.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0441
ICON	4%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0014

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗