KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

42%

21%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u

ICONNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.15u · ICON −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	33.0%	13.0%	0.7%	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	49.3%	24.9%	27.2%	—	39.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	23.9%	29.6%	35.1%	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	30.9%	14.0%	28.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	9.0%	20.7%	18.9%	—	16.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	8.5%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	12.2%	13.6%	11.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	15.5%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	17.2%	25.9%	9.4%	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	14.8%	19.0%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	14.7%	20.3%	13.1%	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	10.0%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	13.4%	21.9%	11.3%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	13.2%	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	10.4%	19.0%	11.4%	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	7.1%	14.8%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	4.8%	17.5%	11.6%	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	7.4%	16.7%	9.2%	—	11.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	6.3%	19.1%	11.2%	5.9%	10.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	6.8%	18.2%	9.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	4.6%	17.3%	7.9%	4.3%	7.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	12.4%	16.4%	8.1%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	22.2%	20.2%	13.0%	21.2%	15.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	19.2%	15.3%	7.5%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	15.2%	16.1%	4.1%	25.0%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	37.0%	19.2%	7.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
AIFS Single	48%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2304
WeatherNext 2	43%	67.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1866
IFS Ensemble	42%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1722
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	21%	64.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0441
ICON	4%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0014

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗