KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

19%

14%

13%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

ICONNO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.30u · ICON −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:27+00:00	22.6%	31.6%	16.2%	20.5%	52.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	22.6%	32.7%	16.2%	20.5%	52.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:05+00:00	22.6%	32.7%	17.9%	20.5%	52.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	22.6%	32.7%	17.9%	20.5%	52.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	22.6%	32.7%	17.9%	20.5%	52.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	22.6%	32.7%	17.9%	20.5%	52.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	17.9%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	17.9%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	17.9%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	17.9%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	26.1%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:06+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	23.5%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	22.8%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	22.8%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	22.8%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	24.9%	32.7%	22.8%	23.2%	32.4%
2026-10-13T08:03:42+00:00	18.5%	32.7%	22.8%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	18.5%	32.7%	22.8%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	18.5%	32.7%	22.8%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	18.5%	32.7%	22.8%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	18.5%	38.8%	14.6%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	18.5%	38.8%	14.6%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	18.5%	38.8%	14.6%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	18.5%	38.8%	14.6%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	16.6%	38.8%	14.8%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	16.6%	41.0%	14.8%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	16.6%	41.0%	14.8%	14.1%	31.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	16.6%	41.0%	14.8%	14.5%	31.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	16.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.5%	31.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	16.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.5%	31.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	16.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.5%	31.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	15.9%	14.9%	12.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	13.2%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	13.2%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	17.6%	41.0%	13.2%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	18.7%	41.0%	13.2%	14.5%	12.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	18.7%	41.0%	13.2%	14.5%	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	42%	70.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1806
IFS Ensemble	41%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	19%	66.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0350
IFS HRES	14%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0210
WeatherNext 2	13%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0174
ICON	12%	63.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0154

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗