KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

19%

14%

13%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

ICONNO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.30u · ICON −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	16.6%	4.9%	0.1%	—	19.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	28.5%	10.9%	12.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	10.0%	13.4%	16.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	13.6%	4.7%	12.3%	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	7.4%	6.6%	—	5.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.2%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.4%	3.9%	3.2%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	4.5%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	5.0%	9.0%	2.2%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	4.0%	5.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	3.8%	5.9%	3.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.1%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.0%	6.1%	2.4%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	2.8%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.9%	4.5%	2.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.0%	2.9%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	3.5%	1.9%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.9%	3.1%	1.3%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.7%	3.5%	1.6%	0.6%	1.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.7%	3.0%	1.2%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	2.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.4%	2.1%	0.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.2%	2.7%	1.3%	2.9%	1.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	1.5%	0.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.3%	1.5%	0.2%	3.1%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.8%	1.7%	0.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	42%	70.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1806
IFS Ensemble	41%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	19%	66.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0350
IFS HRES	14%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0210
WeatherNext 2	13%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0174
ICON	12%	63.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0154

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗