KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

WN2NO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.40u · WN2 −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:16+00:00	0.3%	11.5%	1.8%	18.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	0.3%	11.5%	1.8%	18.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	0.3%	11.5%	1.8%	18.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	0.3%	11.5%	1.8%	18.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:58+00:00	0.3%	11.5%	1.8%	18.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	1.2%	4.0%	0.3%	18.0%
2026-10-11T15:11:49+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	0.3%	18.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	0.3%	18.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	0.3%	18.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:02+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	0.4%	18.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	0.4%	18.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	0.4%	18.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0324
National Blend	10%	66.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0108
IFS Ensemble	4%	67.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0020
AIFS Single	1%	65.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗