KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

WN2NO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.40u · WN2 −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	0.4%	0.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0324
National Blend	10%	66.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0108
IFS Ensemble	4%	67.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0020
AIFS Single	1%	65.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗