WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
59%
WN2
53%
EPS
46%
HRES
16%
ICON
5%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u
VS
ICONNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.80u · ICON −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:01+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:01+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:01+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 06:0210-19 06:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:01+00:0059.0%46.0%21.5%15.9%5.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:0059.0%46.0%52.7%15.9%5.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0059.0%46.0%52.7%15.9%5.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0059.0%46.0%52.7%15.9%5.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend67%69.0°F1.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single59%69.4°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%68.7°F2.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%68.1°F3.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES16%64.8°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON5%62.8°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗