KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

53%

46%

16%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

ICONNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.80u · ICON −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	1.3%	62.6%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	73.1%	14.5%	2.1%	—	57.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	69.6%	7.1%	22.6%	—	52.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	33.7%	0.2%	17.9%	—	47.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	28.1%	4.5%	21.2%	—	26.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	32.2%	7.4%	17.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	8.8%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	10.9%	26.2%	11.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	22.9%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	30.6%	30.6%	14.9%	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	13.7%	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	11.1%	32.1%	15.3%	—	20.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	11.0%	29.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	4.4%	33.0%	20.4%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	22.8%	34.5%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	21.3%	41.3%	22.1%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	21.4%	41.0%	0.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	19.9%	18.3%	15.3%	10.0%	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	8.7%	23.4%	16.7%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	14.4%	24.6%	13.0%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	3.0%	20.0%	11.5%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	7.0%	28.4%	5.0%	5.0%	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	4.0%	13.9%	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	15.4%	21.2%	16.3%	38.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	67%	69.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	69.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	68.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗