KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

26%

20%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.5¢Risks 27.55u

ICONNO 72.5¢Risks 72.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.45u · ICON −72.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	40.5%	41.6%	33.4%	24.8%	11.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	40.5%	41.6%	33.4%	24.8%	11.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	40.5%	41.6%	30.5%	24.8%	11.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	40.5%	41.6%	30.5%	24.8%	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	40.5%	41.6%	30.5%	24.8%	11.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	40.5%	41.6%	30.5%	24.8%	11.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	50.0%	41.6%	30.5%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	50.0%	41.6%	30.5%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	50.0%	41.6%	30.5%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	50.0%	41.6%	30.5%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	50.0%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	50.0%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	50.0%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:20+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	28.6%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	51.7%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	30.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	50.9%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	50.9%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	50.9%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	50.9%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	50.9%	41.6%	32.4%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:20+00:00	50.9%	39.5%	23.8%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	50.9%	39.5%	23.8%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	50.9%	39.5%	23.8%	18.4%	5.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00	50.0%	39.5%	23.8%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	50.0%	39.5%	23.8%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	50.0%	36.2%	23.8%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	23.8%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	23.8%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.7%	5.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	29.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	25.7%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	33.9%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	33.9%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	52.8%	36.1%	33.9%	21.0%	2.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	33.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	33.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	33.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	33.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	33.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	49.0%	38.5%	29.2%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	49.0%	38.5%	29.2%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	49.0%	38.5%	29.2%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	49.0%	38.5%	29.2%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	49.0%	38.8%	29.2%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	49.0%	26.3%	29.2%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	49.0%	26.3%	29.2%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	49.0%	26.3%	23.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	49.0%	26.3%	23.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	49.0%	26.3%	23.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	49.0%	26.3%	23.9%	18.3%	7.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	23.9%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	23.9%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	23.9%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	23.9%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	20.1%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	20.1%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	20.1%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	43.2%	26.3%	20.1%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	48.0%	26.3%	20.1%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	48.0%	26.3%	20.1%	7.5%	7.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	48.0%	26.3%	20.1%	7.5%	7.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3114
AIFS Single	48%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2304
IFS Ensemble	26%	68.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0692
National Blend	24%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0600
WeatherNext 2	20%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0404
IFS HRES	8%	64.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0056
ICON	7%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0050

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗