KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

26%

20%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.5¢Risks 27.55u

ICONNO 72.5¢Risks 72.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.45u · ICON −72.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	9.6%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.5%	49.3%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	60.4%	7.9%	0.9%	—	43.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	55.8%	3.3%	13.2%	—	37.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	21.1%	0.1%	9.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	16.4%	1.8%	11.5%	—	15.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	3.1%	9.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	3.8%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	14.1%	5.2%	—	13.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	11.6%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	16.6%	16.6%	6.6%	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	5.9%	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	4.4%	17.1%	6.5%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	4.2%	14.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	1.3%	17.0%	9.0%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	10.1%	17.6%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	9.0%	22.1%	9.4%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	8.7%	21.4%	0.0%	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	7.6%	6.8%	5.4%	3.1%	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	2.5%	9.2%	5.8%	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	4.6%	9.5%	4.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.6%	6.8%	3.2%	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.6%	10.7%	1.0%	1.0%	1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	3.7%	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	4.0%	6.3%	4.4%	15.4%	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	11.2%	4.1%	2.2%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	6.6%	9.6%	1.1%	9.6%	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	4.1%	0.6%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3114
AIFS Single	48%	70.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2304
IFS Ensemble	26%	68.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0692
National Blend	24%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0600
WeatherNext 2	20%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0404
IFS HRES	8%	64.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0056
ICON	7%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0050

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗