KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

26%

22%

21%

19%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.7¢Risks 12.35u

EPSNO 75.3¢Risks 37.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +37.65u · EPS −37.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:06+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	13.9%	24.9%	58.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	21.6%	24.9%	58.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	21.6%	24.9%	58.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	21.6%	24.9%	58.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	21.6%	24.9%	58.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:42+00:00	29.2%	30.2%	21.6%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	29.2%	30.2%	21.6%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	29.2%	30.2%	21.6%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	29.2%	30.2%	21.6%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	29.2%	17.4%	14.7%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	29.2%	17.4%	14.7%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	29.2%	17.4%	14.7%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	29.2%	17.4%	14.7%	29.7%	51.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	25.5%	17.4%	14.7%	29.7%	52.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	25.5%	18.7%	14.7%	29.7%	52.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	25.5%	18.7%	14.7%	29.7%	52.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	25.5%	18.7%	14.7%	29.7%	52.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	25.5%	18.7%	13.7%	29.7%	52.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	25.5%	18.7%	13.7%	29.7%	52.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	25.5%	18.7%	13.7%	29.7%	52.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	13.7%	29.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	13.7%	29.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	13.7%	29.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	13.7%	29.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	13.7%	30.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	22.3%	30.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	22.3%	30.7%	25.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	27.9%	18.7%	22.3%	30.7%	25.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	21.4%	18.7%	22.3%	30.7%	25.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	21.4%	18.7%	22.3%	30.7%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1971
IFS HRES	31%	71.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0942
ICON	26%	69.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0660
WeatherNext 2	22%	71.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0497
AIFS Single	21%	70.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0458
IFS Ensemble	19%	71.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0350

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗