KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

26%

22%

21%

19%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.7¢Risks 12.35u

EPSNO 75.3¢Risks 37.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +37.65u · EPS −37.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	0.1%	24.4%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	33.0%	1.7%	0.1%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	27.9%	0.5%	3.2%	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	5.8%	0.0%	1.9%	—	11.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	3.8%	0.2%	2.3%	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	4.3%	0.4%	1.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.4%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.5%	2.5%	0.6%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.8%	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.9%	2.9%	0.8%	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	0.6%	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.4%	2.7%	0.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.3%	2.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.1%	2.4%	0.9%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.0%	2.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.7%	3.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.6%	2.7%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	0.6%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1971
IFS HRES	31%	71.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0942
ICON	26%	69.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0660
WeatherNext 2	22%	71.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0497
AIFS Single	21%	70.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0458
IFS Ensemble	19%	71.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0350

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗