KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

60%

54%

44%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

ICONNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.10u · ICON −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:11+00:00	80.6%	56.7%	53.5%	34.4%	30.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	80.6%	56.7%	74.3%	34.4%	30.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	80.6%	56.7%	74.3%	34.4%	30.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	80.6%	56.7%	74.3%	34.4%	30.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	80.6%	56.7%	74.3%	34.4%	30.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	82.5%	56.7%	74.3%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	82.5%	56.7%	74.3%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	82.5%	56.7%	74.3%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	82.5%	56.7%	74.3%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	82.5%	53.9%	53.9%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	82.5%	53.9%	53.9%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	82.5%	53.9%	53.9%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	82.5%	53.9%	53.9%	57.7%	27.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	79.2%	53.7%	53.9%	57.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	79.2%	53.7%	53.9%	57.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	53.9%	57.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	53.9%	57.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	57.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	57.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	57.7%	27.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	61.4%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	58.9%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	58.9%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	58.9%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	83.8%	51.0%	58.9%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	83.8%	51.0%	58.9%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	83.8%	51.0%	58.9%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	83.8%	51.0%	58.9%	48.1%	10.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00	81.3%	59.8%	63.4%	54.3%	12.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	81.3%	59.8%	63.4%	54.3%	12.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	81.3%	59.8%	77.5%	54.3%	12.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	81.3%	59.8%	77.5%	54.3%	12.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	81.3%	59.8%	77.5%	54.3%	12.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	75.3%	59.8%	77.5%	54.3%	44.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	75.3%	59.8%	77.5%	54.3%	44.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	75.3%	59.8%	77.5%	54.3%	44.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	75.3%	59.8%	77.5%	54.3%	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	72.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	71.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	44%	70.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗